Friday, October 21, 2022

2022 Midterms Half Ass Prediction

I'm leaving town until after the midterms and likely won't be able to fully follow the lead up and results. That means that this prediction is earlier than I would normally make it, and is going to miss some late developments. That said, midterms don't change on a dime...usually. THAT said, Georgia and Pennsylvania could very likely change on a dime. Also, there have been two trends to follow this summer, and that is unusual - they also go in opposite directions so the trend matters if it continues. So I'm going to give two Senate predictions: a right now one, and an if the trend continues one.

The Senate in a lot of ways comes down to a couple questions: Is 538's model better than prediction markets and what will the polling error be? Prediction markets seem to be explicitly factoring in a 3 to 4% Democrat bias in polls, which has been common lately. 538 doesn't explicitly take this into account, though their model results do favor R's more than polls, so some of that is there. At publishing time, 538 gives R's 42% chance of taking the Senate (and Nate Silver says his gut says toss-up). Predict It has R's at 65% chance and Iowa is waffling between 50/50 and very slight R favor.

The house is always a lighter prediction and I usually give myself + or - 5 on my seat number. I'll leave it at that but won't be disappointed if I'm off by a couple more. So:

The house: 247 republican seats plus or minus 5. If I miss this one, it is likely that I am too favorable for Democrats. See my Senate prediction for reasons why. I see no real plausible scenario where the D's keep the house (though it is possible - say 15% chance). If they do keep the house then my senate projection will be crap as well.

For the Senate, it comes down to 4 races. I think Ohio, North Carolina and Wisconsin are NOT in those 4. I think they are relatively safe wins for Republicans and if the R's lose any one or more of those the Senate is in Democrat hands, likely with an improved majority. I don't really see that happening but it is certainly not out of the question (say 25%). The races that will decide the balance of power are Pennsylvania, Georgia, Nevada and Arizona. If the R's lose PA they need 2 of the other three. If they hold PA, they need one. Georgia and Pennsylvania are the crazy races...two famous people competing against deeply flawed candidates.

Georgia: Warnock (the D) won in a runoff that was basically GIVEN to the D's by Trump's extremely bad strategy regarding stimulus checks (or intentionally throwing the election in a fit of temper - you just can't tell with trump). Warnock never should have stood a chance. Walker (the R) is famous, but also with a checkered past of accusations and recent abortion accusations (I won't go into those here). Adding to the intrigue, if neither candidate wins 50% we will see ANOTHER GA runoff, possibly for control of the Senate, just like in 2020. Never underestimate the R's ability to fuck up a runoff even though it is traditionally an easy win for them. 

Pennsylvania: a TV shyster versus a man who recently had a stroke and won't disclose his medical records. I fully understand why he won't disclose them, since no matter what they say they will be used against him. This race highlights everything that is wrong with our two party cesspool. In a rational world, there would be a way to step back in this race and come up with a fair way of resolving these issues without the entire fate of the civilized world depending on whether a red or blue asshole wins this election.

Nevada and Arizona are much more traditional Red/Blue battles, with Nevada slightly in R favor and AZ slightly in D favor. GA and PA are classic toss-ups, both could easily be impacted by late news events, though it is important to note that voting has already started in Georgia. Lots of early votes are being cast, which I traditionally think favors D's, but I am not so sure about that in GA.

So the NOW prediction: at the end of election night, there will be 50 seats in Republican hands and 49 seats in Democrat hands with Georgia going to a runoff. Recent history says D's are favored in a GA runoff but long history says R's are favored. I think Walker and Trump will find a way to fuck up the runoff while D's will be more disciplined and on message. BUT, inflation and economy will have time to get worse and this will favor R's. At the end of the year it will be 51 R seats and 49 D seats. I have exactly ZERO confidence in my runoff prediction.

Taking the long view, the D's over the summer defied normal mid term trends with a consistent improvement in their prospects for the Senate, reaching almost 80% chances of winning Senate per 538's model. Abortion rulings, legislative success, student loan forgiveness and falling gas prices all worked in D's favor. D's played the summer almost perfectly. But they shot their ammunition too soon. Trends have steadily drifted back in R's favor, with inflation, gas prices, immigration, mortgage rates and general dissatisfaction all working in the R's favor. I don't expect any serious relief in any of those areas, and, in fact expect the trend to get worse. The attitude of the country is not likely to improve in the next couple weeks. This all favors R's. A late Supreme Court decision or other major event could scupper this, but their best chance: The Court blocking Biden's student loan forgiveness just got eliminated by Amy denying a preliminary injunction. This surprised me. So, reading the tea leaves, if trends continue as they have, I see 53 R seats and 47 D seats. Obviously I have no idea if trends continue and this is NOT how I do election predictions So....

My official prediction is the 50/49 R/D with GA runoff and R's taking the runoff.

Wednesday, May 25, 2022

School Shootings

The worst thing about wanting to find a solution to school shootings is that everybody already knows whose fault it is (mostly based on their tribe). Everyone knows what they want and don't want as a solution and no one is willing to do a nuke level critique and really find a solution that works. There are a thousand switches that had to close to make this happen and opening just one would have stopped it (think electricity or water flow). The secret is to find the switch that prevents the most tragedies (not just school shootings if possible), is easiest to implement and that is the least intrusive compared to potential results. But nobody wants to look because they already know which switch they want (or at least know which switches they are interested in and which are off limits).

Sunday, January 3, 2021

2020 Restaurant Visits

 Restaurant                                    Location                Rating            Beer Selection Rating

MESU

DT

3

2

Coda del Pesce

MP

5

2

Husk

DT

5

3

Tempest

DT

5

3

Wine and Company

DT

5

5

Bistronomy

DT

4

2

Bad Daddy's Burger

Sum

3

3

Poogan's Southern Kitchen

Sum

3

 

Virginia's on King

DT

2

 

Coast Brewing

Park

5

5

Edmunds Oast

NK

5

5

Twenty Six Divine

NK

5

0

Charleston Bakery and Deli

Sum

4

0

Five Loaves Café

Var

4

3

Hall's

DT/Su

4

3

House of Brews

MP

4

5

Renzo

NK

4

3

The Ordinary

DT

4

3

Frannie and the Fox

DT

3

2

Kickin Chicken

Var

3

3

Mellow Mushroom

Var

3

4

Papi's Taqueria

MP

3

3

Baker and Brewer

NK

4

4

Coastal Coffee Roasters

Sum

4

4

Juan Lewis

NK

4

2

Leon's Fine Poultry and Oyst

NK

4

3

Swig and Swine

Var

4

3

The Brew Cellar

Park

4

5

Victor Hopensteins Brewlab

NK

4

3

Commonhouse Aleworks

Park

3

5

Neighborhood Tap House II

NC

4

4

The Darling

DT

4

3

Taco Boy

NK/Su

3

3

Binky's

MP

4

2

The Grit Counter

MP

4

 

167 Raw

DT

3

3

SOL

Sum

3

 

Azul

Park

4

3

First Watch

Su/MP

3

 

Rusty Bull Brewing

NC

3

3

The Mill Street Tavern

MP

3

3

The Codfather

Park

4

3

Bar Felix

DT

4

3

Cuban Gypsy

NC

4

 

Peno Mediterranean Grill

NC

3


 

Here's a link to the Master Restaurant Spreadsheet

Columns are Restaurant, Location, Rating and Beer Selection Rating.

Locations: Park - Park Circle, DT - Downtown, NK - North of 17 Downtown, Var - multiple locations, MP - Mount Pleasant, MN - Middle of Nowhere (Outside Holly Hill in this case), WA - anywhere West of the Ashley, NC - North Charleston, Su or Sum - Summerville

Rating - 1 to 5 scale (5 being best (gotta be perfect to get a 5 - 4 is a perfectly great score and 3 is reliably good))

Beer rating:
1   No beer or little good beer (or a bad brewery)
2   Below Average (or a mediocre brewery)
3   Some locals and other good brews (or an OK brewery)
4   Excellent (or a good brewery)
5   Best (or a great brewery)



Sunday, November 29, 2020

Congress Fails - Courts Legislate - This is NOT How it Works!

 Very few things highlight the failures of the Democrats than their failure to advance legislation to extend the Civil Rights Act when they had majorities. Just like the Republicans, they don't want to solve a problem if they can continue to use it to demonize their opponents and garner votes. 

CONGRESS is the proper way to extend these rights, NOT the courts. If unelected judges can unilaterally change the law or the Constitution then NONE of us are safe from a Court that does not align with our values. 

We shouldn't have to be afraid of a conservative court if the court wasn't trying to fix that which Congress refuses to. 

Biden had almost 50 years to fix this and refused to. He is not going to fix it now. He is going to put a ragged band aid on it, claim to be the hero of the LGBTQ, and then continue to fear-monger for votes.

https://apnews.com/article/joe-biden-donald-trump-barack-obama-discrimination-marriage-fbdd826a46b3c77c265967c73b7ff6e0

Saturday, November 28, 2020

Rights are a Bundle. Ignore Some at Your Own Risk

Again, for those not listening...

Rights are a bundle, not a la carte.

"You don’t care very much about the rights of the sky zombie folks* because you care more about COVID-19? Totally understandable, as you’re allowed to value your personal concerns over those of other people. But then, they’re allowed to care about their values over yours. The difference is that theirs are protected by the Constitution. Honor it not because you agree, but because you expect them to honor the rights you value, and either they all deserve respect or none do."

*these would be religious people

https://blog.simplejustice.us/2020/11/28/god-v-science-constitutionally-speaking/

Partisan Hypocrisy in Census and other Areas

This discussion is another in a long line of examples of unprincipled politicians using principled arguments to pretend that they give a shit about you.

Just like Ds and Rs don't give a crap about whether a vote is legal, fair, or unburdened - only that the vote is for them - when they argue voter ID or felons voting... 

Any thought that politicians actually care about principles regarding the census, reapportionment or redistricting is laughable. Rs want more seats in areas where their voters are and Ds want the opposite. 

It is as simple as that. 

If mail in voting overwhelmingly favored Rs over Ds, their positions would flip instantly and they would pretend they always believed that way and that only an amoral idiot would possibly argue against their positions. 

And their mindless flacks would eat it up and follow right along... 

One needs only remember the past lawsuits on redistricting, and follow along in the coming new redistricting lawsuits as Ds and Rs in one state argue exactly opposite positions of their counterparts in different states depending on how redistricting affects them. 

https://www.scotusblog.com/category/special-features/symposia-before-oral-arguments-in-the-2020-21-term/symposium-before-oral-argument-in-trump-v-new-york/

Thursday, November 26, 2020

The Hidden, but incredibly important election

NATHANIEL RAKICH

We haven’t been actively tracking it, but one other late-breaking election result of note: This week, Democrats basically sewed up a supermajority in the New York state Senate. In addition to giving them the ability to override the vetoes of moderate Democratic Gov. Andrew Cuomo, this also gives Democrats full control over passing new congressional and state legislative maps in New York, which is expected to have 26 House seats next decade. That means that Democrats will control the redrawing of 73 House seats in total, or 17 percent of the House. Republicans will control the redrawing of 188 seats (43 percent), while 167 seats (38 percent) will be drawn by independent commissions or both parties working together.