Thursday, November 1, 2018

20181101 Election Predictions

20181128 FINAL UPDATE:

With the Mississippi runoff in the books, I nailed the Senate prediction at 53 R's. I was one off on the governors - so within my error band.

The House will either be 234 or 235 D's, so either 1 or 2 outside of my error band.

Not too bad.


It might be a little early, but I have pretty much settled on the content and methodology of my predictions, so there's really no reason to wait. I obviously reserve the right to revise should there be major events or polling changes between now and the election.

The governor elections are little more than a guess, but the Senate and House I study to a pretty in-depth level. The Senate gets more individual detail simply based upon the number of races to analyze.

I don't pick individual races (though that's almost what you have to do in the Senate). Instead, I predict the makeup of the Senate, House and the number of governors from each party. Independents are included with the party they caucus with or their basic ideology.

Here are the predictions:

Senate: 53 Republicans and 47 Democrats (+/- 1)
House: 207 Republicans and 228 Democrats (+/-5)
Governors: 26 Republicans (+/-1)

We'll see how I do...

20181107 UPDATE

Still waiting on 3 Senate Races and 12 House Races.
Could be dead on in the Senate but looks like Dems did better in the House than I predicted, but I still have a chance of staying in my margin of error.

20181108 UPDATE

No movement on House and Senate - gonna be a while.
For the House, the final number will be between 223 and 236.  I need 3 of 5 toss-ups to go the R way if I am to stay in the margin of error.
Senate is looking like a 53 - exact match! But it's still plus or minus 3. I can afford one race not going the way it's leaning.
Governors races will be either 26 or 27 Republicans so I got that one within the margin of error (the remaining one will likely go red and make it 27 - so not exact.

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