Tuesday, September 22, 2026

Way to Early Mid-Term Prediction

I will, as usual, do a full prediction when the election is closer, but wanted to post one now to stimulate discussion and help get people to give me their thoughts. I am projecting what I think will be the case on election day, not just using the current status of polls and fundamentals. Obviously as we approach election day it will shift more to polls and my analysis of their reality. I am no expert, just an enthusiastic amateur. None of this should indicate support for either side #neverRneverD

Right now I have the Senate at 52 D and 48 R, with an error range of plus or minus 1 

My states of concern:
Maine - I have this going D but betting against Collins has always been a losing proposition.
Texas - I have going R, but this is Texas.
Iowa - I have going D, but this is the closest race by polls.
Michigan - D heavily favored right now but I feel like there are a lot of ways events could move this.
Alaska - I have going R, but this could be a wildcard.

House I have as 235D plus or minus 5 and this is much more national environment, history and vibes rather than a state by state analysis.

I will do all the Senate states with my final prediction.


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