Showing posts with label democrat. Show all posts
Showing posts with label democrat. Show all posts

Tuesday, September 22, 2026

Way to Early Mid-Term Prediction

I will, as usual, do a full prediction when the election is closer, but wanted to post one now to stimulate discussion and help get people to give me their thoughts. I am projecting what I think will be the case on election day, not just using the current status of polls and fundamentals. Obviously as we approach election day it will shift more to polls and my analysis of their reality. I am no expert, just an enthusiastic amateur. None of this should indicate support for either side #neverRneverD

Right now I have the Senate at 52 D and 48 R, with an error range of plus or minus 1 

My states of concern:
Maine - I have this going D but betting against Collins has always been a losing proposition.
Texas - I have going R, but this is Texas.
Iowa - I have going D, but this is the closest race by polls.
Michigan - D heavily favored right now but I feel like there are a lot of ways events could move this.
Alaska - I have going R, but this could be a wildcard.

House I have as 235D plus or minus 5 and this is much more national environment, history and vibes rather than a state by state analysis.

I will do all the Senate states with my final prediction.


Sunday, November 1, 2020

Official 2020 Election Prediction

 These are my official predictions and I won't change them based on polls or minor movements but reserve the right to change them over a major political event such as a death, COVID cure, or REAL scandal.

President:

Trump gets 219 electoral votes, Biden gets 319

Biden States (closest bunch first): AZ, FL, PA, WI, NV, MN, VA, HI, VT, NH, RI, MA, CT, DC, NJ, DE, WA, OR, CA, CO, NM, IL, NY, MD, 3/4 ME and 1/4 NE

Trump States: NC, GA, OH, IA, UT, ID, MT, WY, ND, SD, KS, OK, TX, MO, AR, LA, IN, KY, TN, WV, MS, AL, SC, AK, ME 1/3, NE, 3/4

States I am most worried about being wrong: NC, GA, OH, ME, AZ, FL

Confidence in my prediction: 65% (this year is weird). If wrong, I think Biden crushes Trump, but I wouldn't be surprised in other direction.

Senate:

51 plus or minus 1 Democrats.

I have CO, GA, ME, NC, AZ flipping Red to Blue

I have AL flipping Blue to Red

Least confident states are IA and ME

House:

I have 233 plus or minus 5 Democrats

Jo Jorgensen:

4.8%