These are my official predictions and I won't change them based on polls or minor movements but reserve the right to change them over a major political event such as a death, COVID cure, or REAL scandal.
Trump gets 219 electoral votes, Biden gets 319
Biden States (closest bunch first): AZ, FL, PA, WI, NV, MN, VA, HI, VT, NH, RI, MA, CT, DC, NJ, DE, WA, OR, CA, CO, NM, IL, NY, MD, 3/4 ME and 1/4 NE
Trump States: NC, GA, OH, IA, UT, ID, MT, WY, ND, SD, KS, OK, TX, MO, AR, LA, IN, KY, TN, WV, MS, AL, SC, AK, ME 1/3, NE, 3/4
States I am most worried about being wrong: NC, GA, OH, ME, AZ, FL
Confidence in my prediction: 65% (this year is weird). If wrong, I think Biden crushes Trump, but I wouldn't be surprised in other direction.
51 plus or minus 1 Democrats.
I have CO, GA, ME, NC, AZ flipping Red to Blue
I have AL flipping Blue to Red
Least confident states are IA and ME
I have 233 plus or minus 5 Democrats
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